Analysing value and potential
A bid rests on two numbers: what the property is worth today, and what it could be worth. This page takes both on one property, from its own sales history and the price level in the surrounding blocks to the plan, the rental income and scenarios you can run the figures on.
Three layers of numbers, one map
A value estimate rests on three layers of numbers, and they used to sit in three places. The property's own history is in Grunnboken (the Norwegian land register) at Kartverket, the price level around it is statistics per grunnkrets (basic statistical unit), and what the market pays for office space and rent right here sits in the listings and the registered commercial sales. Here all three layers are in the same map, and the property is already identified.
The example used through this page is Gullhaugveien 1 in Nydalen, an office building of around 12,900 m² UFA one block from Akerselva. The plot hits several of the items on the list at once: four registered transfers where only two are sales and the last one is from 2000, seven tenants to read the income off, and four plans that overlap each other. That its own history does not stretch far enough is a finding too: the reference then has to come from the area.
Who this is for
Investment managers, acquisition directors, commercial agents and analysts who need to anchor a bid or a valuation in front of a board, a credit committee or a counterparty. Asset managers use the same round when a yield needs to be checked on a property they already own, and project architects when the question is how much new volume the plot can take.
The checklist
| Item | What to look for | Where in Placepoint |
|---|---|---|
| Own history | What the property itself has sold for, and whether the transfer was a sale | The Transactions tab in the Property panel |
| Price level | Average price and number of transactions per grunnkrets | Pricing Info |
| Comparable sales | What the neighbours actually went for, and when | Pricing Info, Business |
| The commercial market | Price and rent for office space in the same blocks | Analysis |
| The potential | Purpose, utilisation rate, plans in progress | The Zoning tab |
| The income | Tenants, employees and lease term | The Tenants tab |
| Volume | Terrain, sun, shadow and views for a new building | 3D mode |
| Scenarios | The options side by side | Tags, Projects |
Map layers are enabled from Map layer in the left-hand menu. See How to use map layers if you have not done it before.
What the property itself has sold for
Click the property in the map and open the Transactions tab in the Property panel. At the top you get the number of transactions, the total sum and the date of the latest one, with a Transaction breakdown that splits them by type. Below are the registered property transactions with registration date, matrikkel number, type and sale price, and the share transactions in a separate tab next to them.
The type column is what decides whether a row says anything about value. Gullhaugveien 1 has four transfers totalling NOK 294 million, split 50/50 by type. The two from December 2022 are Merger/Demerger and have no sale price. The two that are Free Sale are from 1991 and 2000, at NOK 150 million and NOK 144 million. An intra-group transfer moves the title without anyone paying a market price, and the price from 2000 is too old to carry a bid. The reference therefore has to come from the surrounding blocks.
ℹ The tab covers registered title transfers. A sale of the shares in the company that owns the property does not touch Grunnboken, so a property can have changed real owner without a row appearing here.
The price level in the surrounding blocks
Two layers under Pricing Info put statistics per grunnkrets over the map, both from Geodata AS and both updated monthly. They answer level and activity, not individual sales.
Property prices colours each grunnkrets by average property price, in nine steps from under two million kroner to over 25 million, with the figure written in the polygon. Around Nydalen the average runs from around NOK 6 million to over NOK 13 million between grunnkretser that border each other. The image at the top of the page is this layer.
Number of transactions (property) counts the transactions in the same grunnkretser, in seven steps from 0 to over 1,000. Where the average price says level, the count says how much actually changes hands, and a high average price in a grunnkrets with five sales is thin ground.
ℹ An average per grunnkrets is a level figure, not a comparable. It is calculated across everything sold in the grunnkrets, whatever the type and size, so it places the property in the landscape and does not replace a list of actual sales.
Comparable sales, one by one
Latest sales (units of use) puts one marker per home or holiday home sold in the last twelve months, with the purchase price and the price per square metre where it can be calculated. Around Gullhaugveien the map is dense: Nydalen, Storo and Grefsen have sold homes in the hundreds in one year. Click a marker for the details of the individual sale.
ℹ The layer covers Matrikkelen and has a lower limit of NOK 100,000 in purchase price. Housing coop flats are not included, so in an area with many housing coops the map looks thinner than the market is.
Real Estate Transactions in the Media covers the other end of the market: reported purchases and sales of whole properties and portfolios. The markers are coloured by how old the report is, from one to 30 days in red to over 300 days in dark blue, and scaled by price. This is where you find the commercial deals in the neighbourhood that never show up in the housing statistics.
What the market pays for office space
Coming soon
The analyses in the left-hand menu put registered sales, listings and leases as dots in the map, with filters on the left and a dashboard that counts the hits within the map view. Until they are available to everyone, the map layers above give the same picture more coarsely, and Analysis describes each analysis in detail.
Commercial Transaction filters on transaction type and fourteen property types, among them Office, and on UFA and price. With the time period set to two years, Nydalen gives fourteen hits, and each cluster is labelled with the price range inside it, from a couple of million up to NOK 70 million. That is the comparison basis a bid on an office building needs.
Commercial Leasing has the same filters and answers the rental side. Nydalen gives 234 hits over two years, and the labels show the area range in each cluster, from single offices under 100 m² to premises of over 19,000 m². Together with the tenant list, this is what makes a market rent verifiable, and with it a net initial yield that holds.
Market Activity covers the housing side, split into registered sales and listings. Nydalen gives 318 hits over two years, with a price range per cluster. It belongs in a value analysis of an office building too: if the plot is a candidate for conversion, it is the housing prices in the neighbourhood that set the ceiling for what a new volume is worth.
Plot Valuation is the fourth analysis that prices an area, and on Gullhaugveien it answers No data in this area even with the time period set to ten years. Nydalen is fully built out, so a plot analysis has to lean on the commercial sales instead.
The potential: what the plan allows
Value is as much about what can stand on the plot as about what stands there today. The Zoning tab gathers the planning basis. At the top it counts how many kommuneplan (municipal master plan) and reguleringsplan (zoning plan) entries it found, and Enable map layer puts the plan boundaries over the map. Each plan is listed with its land use purpose, plan ID and a link to the plan document.
Gullhaugveien 1 is covered by four plans. Plan 38195, which covers the plot itself, has the purpose Forretning/kontor/industri (retail/office/industry). The other three are the kommunedelplan (sub-area plan) for Akerselva, an adjustment with the purpose Felles gangareal (shared pedestrian area) and a detailed zoning plan with the purpose Fortau (pavement). The first one sets the frame for volume and use; the figures for utilisation rate such as BYA, eaves and ridge height and parking are in the planning provisions, not in the map attributes.
ℹ The tab says so itself for Oslo: the municipality does not share the kommuneplan, and shares only a selection of fields about the zoning plans. The link in the tab goes to Planinnsyn kommunekart, which has the full picture.
Plot Valuation
Coming soon
The Plot Valuation tab calculates a development potential from the plan and the plot area. Until then you read the frames in the Zoning tab and calculate the plot cost yourself; Feasibility study goes through the whole checklist behind such an estimate.
The income the property carries
For an office building the value is the rental income divided by a required return, and the Tenants tab is where the income side begins. It shows who is based at the address, with industry, number of employees and how long they have been there, taken from Brønnøysundregistrene (BRREG).
Gullhaugveien 1 has seven tenants, four of them with employees, 318 employees in total and an average lease term of 7.3 years against 3.5 years historically. The Tenant breakdown splits them by industry. The largest tenant accounts for 188 of the 318 employees and has been there for ten years, and the second largest moved in a little over a year ago. The spread is the whole point: seven tenants, several of them with many years in the building, carry a different yield than one tenant that accounts for the entire income on its own.
ℹ The list builds on registered business addresses and is most complete for companies. It is not a lease contract overview: it says who sits there, not what they pay. You have to set the rental income yourself, and Commercial Leasing above gives the level.
The volume: what can stand there
Once the frames are read, the next question is how much building the plot can take and what that does to the neighbours. Switch to 3D from the button at the top right. The tools in the right-hand tool rail give the figures: Daylight and Shadow for the sun study, Elevation Profile for the terrain, Line of Sight and Viewshed for overlooking, and Measurements for distance and area. Feasibility study goes through them one by one on a single plot, and Analysis describes each panel.
3D-Designer
Coming soon
In 3D-Designer you draw the building options as volumes with footprint and height, and calculate mass for terrain work. Until then, 3D mode and the tools above are what cover the volume study.
The reports that gather the numbers
Coming soon
Price statistics gives price level and price trend per grunnkrets as a finished document, and Demographics gives population, age, income and household types around the property. Both are supporting material you can attach to an investment memo. Until they are available, you export the table from an analysis to Excel, and the map layers under Demographics give the population picture.
Scenarios you can compare
Few value analyses answer what the property is worth. They answer what it is worth under given assumptions. Put each scenario in its own Project or its own Tag, run the same lookups per scenario and set the numbers against each other. Tags exports the selection to Excel, so the comparison can be done in the spreadsheet where the rest of the calculation sits.
Putting it together
A valuation of Gullhaugveien 1 looks like this after the round above:
| Category | Findings at Gullhaugveien 1 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Own history | Four transfers, NOK 294 million in total, but only two sales, the last one in 2000 | Kartverket |
| Price level | Average price from around NOK 6 million to over NOK 13 million between neighbouring grunnkretser | Geodata AS |
| Comparable sales | Home sales in the hundreds over the last twelve months, commercial deals in the media around | Kartverket, Geodata AS |
| The commercial market | Fourteen commercial sales and 234 leases in Nydalen over two years | Analysis |
| Potential | Purpose Forretning/kontor/industri, three more plans that touch the plot | Oslo kommune |
| Income | Seven tenants, 318 employees, average lease term of 7.3 years | Brønnøysundregistrene (BRREG) |
The screenshots from the map go straight into the investment memo, and every figure is traceable to one source with a known update date.
Neighbouring areas
- Understanding a property and its context for the basic lookup that comes before the value analysis.
- Assessing risk for flooding, ground conditions and encumbrances, which runs in parallel.
- Feasibility study when the question is what the plot can take, not what it is worth today.
- Managing and monitoring a portfolio when values need to be followed over time.