Report: Community statistics
The community statistics report brings population, growth components and SSB's projections for each municipality and basic statistical unit together in one document. The report itself is not finished, but the underlying data is available today: in the map layers under Demographics and in Placepoint AI.
The report is coming, the underlying data is here
The report brings together the population and the three components behind the change, for the municipality and for the basic statistical unit: history back to 1951 where Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) has published figures for the area, and SSB's own projection towards 2050. Until it is ready, you do the round yourself in three ways: layer by layer under Demographics; the table behind each layer, downloaded with Export; or by letting Placepoint AI put the figures together into a document. The underlying data is the same in all three cases; the difference is who writes the summary.
Population, excess of births, net immigration and net internal migration are register-based figures that SSB records each year for each municipality and each basic statistical unit. Two things are not included, however long you look. SSB projects the population at municipality level, not per basic statistical unit, so an estimate for the basic statistical unit around a particular plot does not exist in any register and is not produced by dividing the municipality figure by area. And the projection says how many people live somewhere in 2050, not who: the age, household or housing type of the new residents is not part of the figure. That composition is the question for Report: Demographics, and only for today's population.
See also: Analysing value and potential on placepoint.no.
An estimate is not a count
The history in this report is a count. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) adds up how many people actually lived in a municipality or basic statistical unit at a given time, year by year back to 1951 where the figure is published for the area. The figures up to 2050 are something else. They are SSB's population projection, the main alternative among the several that SSB calculates. It builds on assumptions about fertility, mortality, immigration and internal migration going forward. The further ahead you read, the more of the figure is the assumptions talking, not the observation. An estimate for 2027 sits close to today's trend. An estimate for 2050 is what happens if the fertility, immigration and migration patterns in the model hold over a quarter of a century, in a single municipality where the outcome swings more than for the country as a whole. The uncertainty grows steadily along the whole curve; it does not suddenly jump at a particular year.
That is why the report always keeps the history and the projection as two separate parts, not one continuous curve. The history does not change when SSB updates its assumptions. The projection does, often from one publication year to the next, and a figure you read last year may be adjusted this year without anything in the observed population having changed.
Who this is for
The chain assessing its next retail location, the housing developer pricing a plot against expected demand, and the analyst putting a market in context before an investment decision. All three need the growth picture before they need the details: is the population rising or falling where they are considering committing, and why. A place with a falling population and a negative excess of births raises different questions for a housing project than a place where the growth comes from net internal migration, even if the population today is identical.
The underlying data is the same wherever in the country the place sits: 3.5 million matrikkelenheter, each in its municipality and its basic statistical unit. See Placepoint in numbers for the full overview.
Community statistics or Demographics
Community statistics answers how many and which way things are going. Demographics answers who: age, household, income and housing conditions in the basic statistical unit around a selected property.
The distinction also applies to daytime population. This report counts residents by registered address, not where people are during the day. That question belongs to the Daytime population map layer and to the Demographics report.
The checklist
| Question | What to look for | Where in Placepoint |
|---|---|---|
| How many people live here now | Population per municipality and basic statistical unit, and fine-grained distribution in the grid | Population, Population grid 100 m x 100 m |
| What drives the change | Excess of births, net immigration and net internal migration separately | The Population figures tab in the report |
| The road here | The development back to 1951, and where municipality mergers break the series | The Population figures tab in the report |
| The road ahead | SSB's main alternative up to 2050, municipality by municipality | The Population projections tab in the report |
| Which level to read at | Municipality figures or basic statistical unit figures, depending on the question | The Population map layer, which shows municipality, county or basic statistical unit depending on the zoom level |
You switch the map layers on from Map layer in the left menu. See How to use map layers if you have not done it before.
How many people live here now
The first question a practitioner asks is the simplest: how many people actually live here, and how densely. The answer has to hold at two scales at once, the municipality as a whole and the basic statistical unit around the specific plot, because the two rarely say the same thing.
The Population layer gives the population per basic statistical unit by registered home address, and Population grid 100 m x 100 m counts the same thing in a grid that does not care where the basic statistical unit boundary runs. Open Legend at the bottom left of the map before you read the colours or the figures; without it the map is just colours without a scale. In the report this is the Population figures tab: key figures for the current year and the change from the year before, with two geographical levels side by side, for example a basic statistical unit against the municipality it sits in.
| Map layer | Answers |
|---|---|
| Population | Population per basic statistical unit, municipality and county, by registered address |
| Population grid 100 m x 100 m | The same count in a grid of 100 x 100 metres, independent of the basic statistical unit boundaries |
Basic statistical unit boundaries are adjusted from time to time. When that happens, the count moves residents from one unit to the neighbouring unit without anyone having moved in reality. The grid is unaffected by the adjustment, the basic statistical unit figure is not.
What drives the change
The next question is why. A place grows because more people are born there than die, because people move in from abroad, or because people move in from elsewhere in Norway. The three answers make quite different demands on the place.
The report's Population figures tab breaks the change from the year before into three components, for both geographical levels: excess of births, net immigration and net internal migration. The excess of births follows from the age composition of the place, not from how attractive it is right now: a young population gives a positive excess almost regardless, an ageing one gives a negative excess even in a place people want to live. Net immigration is largely a national and regional flow, not something the place itself controls. Net internal migration is the component that says something about the place's own pull against the rest of Norway: jobs, homes and quality of living measured against the alternatives. A municipality near a city often sees high net internal migration from neighbours with higher housing prices, even if nothing in the municipality's own economy has changed.
The three components can pull in different directions in the same municipality. A place can have positive net immigration and still shrink overall, if net internal migration is negative enough to outweigh it. It is the sum, not one component alone, that is the growth.
The road here
Is the growth new, or has the place grown for decades? A place that has grown continuously since the 1970s is a different case for an investment decision than a place where the curve turned three years ago, even if both show the same population today.
The report shows the development back to 1951 where Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) has published figures for the area, in the same Population figures tab. That is a long enough series to separate a trend from a temporary swing, provided the series actually covers the place all the way. A single weak year says little on its own; it is the direction over several decades that decides whether a fall is the start of something or a blip.
Municipality mergers break old series. A municipality that did not exist before a merger has no history of its own before that date; the figures from before the merger sit with the municipalities that went into it, not with the new one.
The road ahead
The history says where the place has been. The question a decision really needs answered is where it is heading: a population that has fallen over the last five years and a projection that turns upwards are two different signals, and it is the projection that should weigh most for something that has to stand for twenty years.
The Population projections tab shows this as a map of Norway with one bubble per municipality for the period 2020-2050: blue for growth, red for decline. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) calculates several alternatives: a low and a high estimate in addition to the main alternative. It is the main alternative that is used here, not Placepoint's own estimate, and the difference between a count and an estimate applies in full to every single figure on this map.
A small municipality's bubble swings more from one publication to the next than a large municipality's. A few hundred moves change the percentage growth noticeably in a municipality of 2,000 residents, and barely noticeably in one of 200,000.
Which level to read at
The municipality figure and the basic statistical unit figure answer different questions, and reading the wrong level into a quick assessment is the most common mistake in this area. The municipality tells you how the whole administrative area is moving, and is the level the projection actually exists at. The basic statistical unit tells you who lives near the specific plot, today, and is the smallest official level Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) publishes population figures for. If you are asking whether the municipality as a whole is a growth municipality, the answer is at municipality level. If you are asking about this plot specifically, the answer is at basic statistical unit level, and the two questions do not always have the same answer.
| Level | What you get |
|---|---|
| Municipality | Population, the components behind the change and a projection to 2050 |
| Basic statistical unit | Population and development for the smallest official geographical level, the level a property actually sits in |
A municipality average can hide large internal differences. A growth municipality can have basic statistical units in the centre growing fast and basic statistical units on the edge shrinking, at the same time, and a municipality figure alone does not say which of the two your plot sits in.
The report itself
The report opens from the report list on a selected property, preselected for the location's municipality and basic statistical unit, and consists of two tabs.
| Part | Content |
|---|---|
| Population figures | Population and change from the year before for two geographical levels side by side: population, excess of births, net immigration, net internal migration and the history back to 1951 where it exists |
| Population projections | Map with one bubble per municipality for 2020-2050, blue for growth and red for decline, following SSB's main alternative |
| Not in the report | Projections per basic statistical unit, and who the future residents are. See Report: Demographics for the composition of today's population |
Every line in the report has a date and a link to the table at Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) it comes from, so a figure can always be traced back to the publication behind it.
Build the report today with Placepoint AI
Placepoint AI has access to the same tables from Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) that the map layers build on, and writes the document from a single prompt. More ready-made examples are on Examples and tips. The prompt does not need to be longer than this:
Build a population report for [municipality or address]. Show the population
today at municipality and basic statistical unit level, broken down into
excess of births, net immigration and net internal migration. Show the
development back to 1951 where figures exist, and SSB's projection up to 2050.
State clearly that the projection builds on assumptions and is not a count,
and that SSB projects at municipality level, not per basic statistical unit.
If the answer has to go into your own template, ask for a table instead of text, with municipality and population as the first two columns.
If you are in the map, the Agent does the quick lookup without switching tools: "How many people live in this basic statistical unit, and has the figure grown over the last ten years?" gives population and trend as text with links.
Related surfaces
- Report: Demographics - population composition for a single property.
- Report: Market and area analysis - the same area, broader content.
- Map layer: Demographics - the population layers in the map.
- How to use map layers - from the catalogue to a layer you can read against the plot.
- Placepoint AI - the same figures, written up from a single prompt.
Data sources
- Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) (population, growth components, projections).
- Geodata AS (distribution to Placepoint).